Rendimiento en los Juegos Panamericanos de Santiago 2023: Predicción mediante método de suavización exponencial simple

Jorge Flández; Rodrigo Vargas; Víctor Jacques; Miguel Cornejo; Rubén Gajardo-Burgos; Frano Giakoni-Ramírez; José Aguilar; Raúl Urbina; Daniel Duclos-Bastías

doi:10.29035/rcaf.24.2.9

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Jorge Flández

Universidad Austral de Chile, Chile

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4088-7449

Rodrigo Vargas

Universidad Católica del Maule, Chile

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7554-9589

Víctor Jacques

Universidad Austral de Chile, Chile

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7528-8374

Miguel Cornejo

Universidad de Concepción, Chile

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4579-605X

Rubén Gajardo-Burgos

Universidad Austral de Chile, Chile

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4515-2492

Frano Giakoni-Ramírez

Universidad Andrés Bello, Chile

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2685-8991

José Aguilar

Universidad Austral de Chile, Chile

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6328-6451

Raúl Urbina

Universidad de los Andes, Chile

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7789-7897

Daniel Duclos-Bastías

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Chile

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9020-5776

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyze the sports performance of the Chilean delegation in the Pan American Games held between 1951 and 2023, using retrospective and projective data through time series. For this purpose, a quantitative, non-experimental and longitudinal design of trends and a simple exponential smoothing method was used, which uses historical averages and allows a prediction or future behavior based on a weighted average of current and past values. From the results obtained, it was possible to conclude that, in recent decades, Chile's position in the Pan American Games ranking has stabilized around eleventh place, a position predicted for Santiago 2023. Maintaining similar conditions, the general and specific sporting performance would not have an exponential break in the trend and the results are not favorable, specifically in terms of obtaining gold medals and the overall position of the delegation.

Item information

Published: Oct 18, 2023

Issue: Vol. 24 No. 2 (2023): Revista Ciencias de la Actividad Física UCM

Section: Research

DOI: https://doi.org/10.29035/rcaf.24.2.9

Keywords: Panamerican Games, Sports performance, Elite sport, Forecasting technique, Simple exponential smoothing

How to Cite

Flández, J., Vargas, R., Jacques, V., Cornejo, M., Gajardo-Burgos, R., Giakoni-Ramírez, F., Aguilar, J., Urbina, R., & Duclos-Bastías, D. (2023). Performance at the Santiago 2023 Pan American Games: Prediction using a simple exponential smoothing method. Revista Ciencias De La Actividad Física UCM, 24(2), 1-14. https://doi.org/10.29035/rcaf.24.2.9

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